Florida's House Map: The Impact of Hispanic Voters on Republican Strategies

Sep 26

9 min read

Updated: 20 hours ago

By Wayne Ince, Tampa, Florida

At Pipo Burgers in Doral, the lunch crowd has vanished. "Our sales have dropped 70%," Katia Rios told CBS Miami. "We spend hours empty." Nearby, ICE agents have been active on 107th Avenue. "People are scared to come out," she lamented. (CBS Miami)

Hold that image. An empty booth in Doral serves as a poll you can walk into. The lights are on, yet no one is eating.

The Republican Foundation in Florida

Republicans have built their Florida on towns like Doral. Venezuelan families fleeing Chávez and Cuban families escaping Castro have made their homes here. Small-business owners, who instinctively reach for the Republican ballot at the mention of socialism, are part of this fabric. Just two years ago, Donald Trump carried Miami-Dade County, the first Republican to achieve this in over three decades. Tallahassee treated that win like a deed to the property, drawing a congressional map on top of it.

Now, that deed is in dispute.

As Democrats enter the fall, they hold their widest House generic-ballot lead of the year in the Fox News polling average: 49% to 42% among registered voters, and 53% to 42% among likely voters. The latest Fox News Power Rankings indicate Democrats are positioned to secure 215 seats, with 19 toss-ups remaining. They need just three of those toss-ups to reclaim the House. Republicans, in Fox's own words, are "hanging by a thread." (Fox News)

National numbers are merely weather patterns. What truly matters is where the storm makes landfall. This one is hitting Hispanic voters hardest, and Florida is where Republicans can least afford it.

The Coalition is Cracking

Fox measures the Hispanic vote shifting from D+12 in the 2024 presidential race to D+29 on its latest generic ballot. The New York Times, averaging high-quality national polls, shows Democrats leading 64 to 29 among Hispanic likely voters.

Florida is not immune to this trend. A Hart Research survey for TelevisaUnivision polled Hispanic voters in two pivotal Florida districts: the Tampa-based 14th and the South Florida 25th. This group backed Trump over Harris in 2024, but this year they prefer Democrats for Congress, 52 to 39. Three in five disapprove of the president. Neither district is Hialeah.

The sharpest warning comes from within the party. A Miami GOP pollster found that 63% of Hispanic voters still support deporting individuals who are here illegally. However, only 29% approve of the current methods. Fifty-eight percent oppose them. His verdict: "The support is just evaporating. The economy is struggling, and ICE is out of control. People feel they didn't sign up for this." (Axios)

That encapsulates the entire race in three sentences. Prices have ignited the fuse. The gap between 63% and 29% has made it personal. These voters signed up for a secure border but received videos of individuals being arrested at gas stations for no apparent reason. A Trump adviser told Axios that "the Trumpiest Cubans" keep sending him those videos from Miami. (Axios) They witnessed Venezuelan neighbors losing their legal work papers when Temporary Protected Status ended. They saw over 4,300 Cubans deported to Mexico, many of whom were elderly with serious health issues, some having lived here for decades. The notion of Cubans being deported in Miami was once unthinkable.

The Republican Party constructed its Florida majority on the backs of individuals who fled oppressive governments. Now, it has turned its back on them.

I wore Air Force blue for 23 years, serving in Haiti, Bosnia, and Kosovo. In all these places, people fled from men at the door. I did not pledge to support and defend the Constitution so that my own government could adopt such tactics: gas-station arrests for no reason, work papers stripped, and older Cubans deported to Mexico.

Salazar's Confession

You don't need a poll to sense the panic. Just watch the ads.

María Elvira Salazar represents the 27th District in Miami-Dade, a district that is 74% Latino and one that Trump carried by 15 points. She won it by 20 in 2024. Salazar has championed the Dignity Act, a bill aimed at granting legal status to some long-settled undocumented immigrants, since 2023. What’s new is her audience. This month, she stood in front of the White House, addressing a camera. The ad was directed at the president. "Mr. President, some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far," she stated. "The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today." (Tampa Bay Times)

Trump's response was quintessentially Trump. "I got her elected. Without me, she wouldn't have gotten elected." (Mother Jones)

Incumbents who feel secure do not produce such ads. Salazar is facing Eliott Rodriguez, a retired CBS Miami anchor and son of Cuban immigrants, whose own campaign pollster has the race tied at 45. Treat a campaign poll as just that. However, the Cook Political Report has shifted her seat from Likely to Lean Republican. Sabato's Crystal Ball has made a similar move. Cook also pushed the open 22nd District to a toss-up and moved Anna Paulina Luna's 13th to Lean Republican. Fox adjusted Jared Moskowitz's redrawn 25th to Lean Democratic and dropped the 14th and 22nd into toss-up territory.

Seven Florida House races have shifted toward Democrats in one Fox update. Seven. This is significant in a state Republicans have labeled red for four years.

The College Connection

Salazar is attempting to distance herself from the raids. Meanwhile, the man at the top of her ticket is sprinting in the opposite direction.

In August, Margaret Brennan asked Byron Donalds on Face the Nation whether he would advise Florida parents to vaccinate their children against measles. He did not answer affirmatively. Instead, he stated: "No, actually, my message to Floridians and, quite frankly, to Americans is that the reason we have seen a measles outbreak in certain parts of the country is due to rampant illegal immigration into the United States from the previous administration." (CBS News) His evidence pointed to southwest Florida, where he resides.

PolitiFact rated this claim as False. The outbreak in southwest Florida originated at Ave Maria University, a private Catholic college in Collier County. State health officials traced it most likely to a student's holiday travel from another state, not from the Rio Grande. Ninety-four percent of this year’s measles cases involve individuals who were unvaccinated or whose vaccination status is unknown. National kindergarten MMR coverage has declined from 95.2% to 92.4% in six years. Florida recorded 156 cases by late August, surpassing the total from the previous 30 years combined.

Donalds did not back down. He doubled down in Miami this month, stating, "Ten million people crossed our borders illegally. They weren't checking names. They damn sure weren't checking vaccination records." (Florida Politics) He then promised to collaborate with the Legislature to "review" the vaccinations Florida mandates for schools, including MMR and polio.

Now, consider who hears that in Hialeah. A Venezuelan mother, whose work papers expired with TPS, listens as the man who seeks to lead her state blames her family for a disease. In the same speech, he threatens to alter the school vaccine list. This is akin to blaming the neighbor for a fire and then selling off the hoses.

Remove the border rhetoric and listen closely. This is what the party thinks of the voters it is losing.

A Map Drawn on Sand

Ron DeSantis signed a mid-decade map this spring, aiming to transform a 20-8 Republican delegation into a 24-4 majority. This map targeted four Democrats. Darren Soto's 9th district shifted from a Harris seat to a 58-41 Trump seat. Kathy Castor's 14th flipped from a Harris win to a 55-44 Trump district. Lois Frankel's former 22nd went from a Harris win by five to a Trump win by 14. Moskowitz's 25th swung from Harris 50-48 to Trump 54-45.

Examine who remains within those boundaries. The 9th district is still 36% Latino, heavily Puerto Rican. The 22nd is nearly a third Latino. The 25th and the 14th are in the high twenties. The Times reported that Republicans in Florida and Texas redrew their maps partly on the assumption they would retain Trump's Hispanic gains.

A gerrymander is a gamble. Tallahassee wagered on loyalty from individuals it was about to treat as suspects. The Times, running its latest national poll through each district's demographics, estimates double-digit Democratic swings across the heavily Hispanic Florida seats that Trump won decisively, with the three Miami-Dade Republican districts swinging somewhere between 21 and 25 points. This is a model, not a district poll, and Cook keeps Salazar's seat at Lean Republican. Nevertheless, it is the kind of number that transforms a secure seat into a call to the NRCC.

Don't Book the Party Yet

Now for the cold reality. Florida has shattered Democratic hopes for a decade, and it can do so again. Start with funding. Byron Donalds and his committees have amassed $120.9 million for governor. In contrast, David Jolly has raised about $14.6 million. Republicans maintain a 1.55 million voter registration advantage in this state. Stetson's new poll shows Donalds ahead by 12 and Ashley Moody up by 11 in the Senate race, even as St. Pete Polls indicates both contests are nearly a coin flip. The media markets in Miami and Tampa are notoriously expensive, allowing Republicans to outspend Democrats on every screen in both regions.

Fox identified three wild cards. The first is Iran. The war the president initiated is impacting Republicans at the gas pump. Last week, Florida gas prices averaged $4.28, up $1.16 from a year ago. Sixty-one percent of voters in the Fox poll consider gas prices a major issue. This translates to grocery money disappearing from Florida households each week, and no Democrat should take comfort in that. Republicans are currently bearing the political brunt, but that burden is temporary. A ceasefire and a drop in prices at the Wawa would provide Republicans with the oxygen they currently lack.

Next, there’s the DSA. Fox found voters 19 points less likely to support a candidate who aligns with the Democratic Socialists of America. They added a caution: "But watch whether the DSA hurts the Dems." (Fox News) In most parts of the country, "socialist" is a derogatory term. In Miami, it is part of family history. Salazar is already reaching for this narrative, labeling Democrats as "this very big threat called the socialists." (Mother Jones) Any Democrat who inadvertently hands her that term hands her the race.

Lastly, consider MAGA turnout. A quarter of voters indicated to Fox that a Trump endorsement makes them more likely to support a candidate. This base is substantial enough to sway a close seat. Republicans have expressed to Axios that they are not overly concerned about Hispanic conservatives switching allegiances. They anticipate low GOP turnout. This is the real contest in South Florida: not conversion, but attendance.

TelevisaUnivision's CEO, Daniel Alegre, stated plainly: "In no way is the Hispanic vote won." (Miami Herald) He is correct. These voters have not simply become Democrats; they have become free agents.

What Does Winning Them Take?

Free agents sign with whoever presents the better offer. Show up in Spanish. Address the bills that are suffocating them: groceries, rent, insurance, and gas. Two Miami unions, UNITE HERE Local 355 and SEIU 32BJ, knocked on over 30,000 doors between March and June. Of the 2,381 individuals who completed their survey, 77% reported that conditions were worsening. It is crucial to clarify the difference between a secure border and a person being arrested at a gas station for no apparent reason. Most of these voters can comprehend both ideas simultaneously. Their party has stopped allowing them to do so.

Florida's registration deadline is October 5. Early voting begins on October 24. Election Day is November 3.

Florida is not blue. Its House map is no longer securely red either. It resembles a booth in Doral with no one sitting in it. The party that fills it in the next 38 days will claim those seats as its own.