Veteran Economic Briefing
- W
- May 26
- 5 min read
Veteran Economic Briefing Model
Military Risk, Fuel Prices, and Household Purchasing Power
Something happened at the pump in May 2026 that didn’t make the evening news.
Regular gasoline hit $4.50 a gallon. On-highway diesel was running $5.64. For a household driving 1,200 miles a month in a vehicle averaging 24 miles per gallon, that is $60 more a month than at the start of the year. Run two vehicles and you are north of $100. Run a fixed pension and a 35-mile round-trip to the nearest VA facility, and that $60 does not come from nowhere. It comes out of something.
I built this model because I spent 23 years in the Air Force watching the U.S. government commit to overseas operations, and I spent those same years watching the households on the other side of the gate absorb costs that never show up in a defense budget. This is a model for putting a number on one of those costs.
What this model does
The model connects three pressures that land at the household level together: sustained military operations abroad, fuel-price shocks at home, and the contraction of monthly discretionary income. It does not claim that military spending directly sets gasoline prices. What it does is treat overseas involvement as a risk variable that can amplify energy-market uncertainty, particularly when conflict touches oil-producing regions, shipping lanes, or global spare capacity. The Energy Information Administration has been clear on the mechanism: geopolitical developments can disrupt oil flows or create uncertainty about future supply and demand, and short-run price volatility runs high because both supply and demand are slow to respond to price signals.
The latest data make the question concrete.
EIA weekly retail prices for the week ending May 11, 2026: regular gasoline at $4.50 a gallon, on-highway diesel at $5.639 a gallon, both up sharply from early-2026 levels. BLS reported April 2026 all-items CPI at 3.8% year over year, with energy at 17.9% and gasoline at 28.4%. National defense authorizations have held near $890 billion: FY2024 and FY2025 both authorized at $883.7 billion; FY2026 came in at $890.6 billion.
This model is built for scenario analysis, not prediction. It lets you vary deployment duration, fuel-price shock size, household gasoline consumption, diesel-linked cost exposure, pass-through rate, income, and baseline discretionary income. The output answers one question: after a fuel shock tied to a sustained overseas engagement, what is left at the end of the month?
What the model tracks
Fuel prices
The fuel module starts where the household starts: at the pump. It uses EIA weekly U.S. retail prices for regular gasoline and No. 2 on-highway diesel, reported in dollars per gallon including taxes. The dataset runs from January 2024 forward; the week ending May 11, 2026 is the latest observed point.
The diesel number matters beyond the truck stop. Freight moves by diesel. Groceries move by freight. When diesel runs at $5.64, the increase does not stay at the pump.
Inflation pressure
BLS put April 2026 all-items inflation at 3.8% year over year. Energy ran at 17.9%. Gasoline ran at 28.4%.
Fuel-sensitive inflation is running at more than seven times the core rate. For a household where fuel is a fixed-cost line (no flex in the commute, no switching to transit, no remote option), that gap is not a data point. It is a budget problem that compounds every month the price stays elevated.
Defense spending levels
The military-spending module tracks national defense authorizations across fiscal years. The FY2024 NDAA set an $883.7 billion national defense topline: $841.4 billion for the Department of Defense, $32.4 billion for Department of Energy national security programs, $0.4 billion in defense-related activities, and $9.5 billion in defense-related activities outside NDAA jurisdiction. FY2025 held at $883.7 billion. FY2026 came in at $890.6 billion against an $882.6 billion in-scope request. CBO puts the full DoD 2026 budget request at $961 billion, which includes $113 billion provided through the 2025 reconciliation act.
The authorization numbers set the scale of U.S. military commitment. The fuel numbers set what that commitment costs at the household level. This model runs those two series through the same ledger.
Calculator structure
Inputs
The calculator runs on seven analyst-controlled inputs.
Duration measures the number of months of active overseas involvement. Fuel shock measures the assumed percentage increase in gasoline and diesel prices against the latest EIA baseline. Gasoline gallons measure the household’s direct pump exposure. Diesel-linked exposure is a gallons-equivalent proxy for the indirect cost increases that travel through freight pricing into everyday household spending. Pass-through rate sets what fraction of the diesel-linked increase actually reaches the household budget. Income sets the monthly gross. Baseline discretionary income sets what the household had to work with before the shock.
Output
The model produces four numbers.
Direct monthly fuel-cost increase: what the higher pump price costs the household each month at the stated consumption rate. Indirect diesel-linked cost increase: the freight pass-through estimate for that month. Cumulative loss: what both of those add up to across the full duration of the engagement. Remaining discretionary income: what is left after the shock is absorbed.
That last number is the one that matters. A veteran household on a fixed pension, two vehicles, 1,200 miles a month, $4.50 at the pump: the model runs the math over six months, twelve months, eighteen. The cumulative column is where the kitchen-table decision gets made: whether the car repair waits, whether the prescription gets split, whether the trip home for the holiday happens. The model does not make that decision. It shows you the number the decision gets made around.
A note on what this model is not
It is not a political argument. It is not a claim that any specific operation caused any specific fuel price. The relationship between military posture and energy prices is real, documented, and indirect. Conflict near oil-producing regions introduces supply uncertainty; uncertainty moves markets; markets move what you pay at the pump. How much, and how fast, depends on variables this model does not attempt to forecast.
What this model does is give the analyst a tool to run the household-level arithmetic for any assumed scenario. The assumptions are yours. The math is the model’s.
Sources: EIA U.S. gasoline and diesel retail prices (weekly, eia.gov); BLS Consumer Price Index April 2026 release (bls.gov); FY2024 NDAA conference executive summary (Senate Armed Services Committee); CRS FY2026 NDAA summary (everycrsreport.com); CBO defense and national security budget analysis (cbo.gov).
New to the model? The How to Read and Use the Veteran Economic Briefing Model guide walks through every section — what each slider does, how to read the outputs, and how to run a scenario for your household.
Related reading:Veteran PTSD and the Hidden Economic Cost of Military Service — the full picture behind the numbers in this briefing, including PTSD rates, VA costs, and what the data means for veteran households.
Go deeper: Read our complete guide — Veteran PTSD: Understanding, Treating, and Living Beyond Post-Traumatic Stress.
This briefing sits inside two anchor pages on Big Sarge. Veteran PTSD and the Hidden Economic Cost of Military Service is the full pillar. How to Read the Veteran Economic Briefing Model is the user guide for working these numbers.
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